| Sinclairvoyance |
THE NEW YEAR is traditionally a time for looking backwards and forwards. An old year has just been completed and has to be raked over before it can be laid to rest. The new year is ready and waiting to be embarked on with all the excitement and trepidation the unknown brings.
Last year was a quiet one for Sinclair users. There was no new computer - just time for the Spectrum to enhance its position as the most popular microcomputer in Britain. Despite its having many critics, particularly for its poor sound and alleged lack of durability, it topped the sales charts consistently, with the other machines struggling to keep pace. It seems likely that there is plenty of life left in the Spectrum. New launches threaten to put a dent in the continued success of the machine but none, not even the Dragon or the Oric, which looked as if they could approach it most closely, has lived up to sales expectations. The Elan appears to have what it takes but, as with the rest, we shall have to wait and see how quickly there can be machines on sale in sufficient numbers to have any real impact.
The major hardware news of the year was, of course, the launch of the Microdrive. After having to wait so long since the first announcement it was almost bound not to live up to all its expectations. Given the length of time people had to build their hopes of what the mass storage device would be able to do, it could safely be predicted that the eventual product would not please everyone. Despite that, it is still a worthwhile enhancement for the Spectrum, when people cease to compare it to disc drive systems and regard it more as a fairly inexpensive way of increasing memory and making loading programs vastly quicker and more simple.
The most important developments last year, however, were not about new releases but about changes in the market. The possibility of being able to make big profits has attracted the bigger companies such as Virgin and Thorn-EMI, with a consequent increase in market sophistication.
Some existing software houses, like Quicksilva and Carnell, had begun to stage software launches and presentations. Virgin, however, hit the market with the full razzmataz of the record industry when it set up Virgin Games. A night club was hired with pop music blaring out and a Mrs Thatcher imitator to attract the Press. The games and their young programmers seemed almost incidental.
Some of the early amateurish romance has left the market but that was essential if sales are to develop away from the enthusiasts. Home computers, despite the increasing amount of coverage in the newspapers and magazines and on television, are still only in about 10 percent of homes in Britain and that is the biggest national percentage in the world.
Those moves have been emphasised by the disappearance of a number of the smaller companies. They have either ceased trading, like Kayde, or have been taken over, like Abersoft being bought by Melbourne House.
The pattern which seems as if it is being followed is that of the book publishing industry, with software houses being purely publishers which contract a number of software writers with the duplication and distribution being another two separate functions.
Looking ahead, much of what can be expected will be the result of what began to happen in 1983. Once the festive boom has departed it can be expected that there will be a further rationalisation of the companies selling Sinclair software and hardware. It is likely that there will be a polarisation into large and very small companies.
There will always be a place for the programmer or hardware enthusiast who sees a gap in the market for a specialised use to which Sinclair machines can be put. That has already occurred with programs like Beamscan for use by architects and there are other items in varying stages of development. Those people who wish to make variations of games already being sold should probably do their selling through an established publisher which has the expertise.
Anyone wanting to enter the market hoping to become a major force must think relatively big in product range and launch plans so that a presence can be established quickly.
This year is one which is being seen as the time when some of the smaller computer companies will cease trading. Jupiter Cantab, maker of the Jupiter Ace, has already ceased trading and many people expect some others to go the same way. No doubt there will be others who will introduce new machines to take advantage of that elusive extra 90 percent of British homes, not to mention the export potential. This could be the year when the Japanese finally get it right.
The major news from Sinclair will be its move into the business market. On the same lines as the Microdrive, the appearance of the 'ZX-83' has been talked about a great deal. Sir Clive has said what he considers to be its main elements - a portable with flat-screen television and Microdrive storage - while others have added the gloss of suggested mock-ups and illustrations. The official word is that it can be expected in the first half of 1984.
It is to be hoped that Sinclair Research gets its marketing correct. Business users are far more demanding and the market is far more competitive. The machines need to be reliable and available, or customers will go elsewhere. Many users have some experience of computers and know what they want. They will not be willing to suffer delays and problems in the same way home owners have done.
Sinclair presumably will sell on price, banking on high volume to compensate for narrower margins. It will have to offer much more back-up than it does at present. Other areas of the business market have realised that and are willing to provide what the market demands. After paying for software, peripherals and training, the price of the basic machine is often the least important consideration in buying a new system. That is something Sinclair has left to others in the past. If it wishes to make an impact on business users, it will have to offer it itself from the beginning.
Finally, with this being 1984, with all its Orwellian connotations, we can expect much detailed consideration of the impact of computers on our lives. They are not the frightening, dangerous things they were once regarded but there are still difficulties in learning how to deal with changes they will bring. Perhaps fears of the complete 1984 society will help to provide some answers.