| Sinclairvoyance |
IN LITTLE MORE than 18 months, home computing has grown from an obscure hobby, sparked by the appearance of Sir Clive Sinclair's revolutionary inexpensive computers, to a multi-million pound business with an expansion rate which shows no signs of slowing.
This Christmas, you can walk into any number of high street stores, from W H Smith to Woolworths and Boots, and buy a ZX-81 or a Spectrum as easily as a desk diary or a bottle of after-shave lotion. Nor does a small band of beleaguered enthusiasts any longer have to swap precious tapes, or write to little-known programmers and trek to distant specialised shops to obtain new ones. Smartly-packaged software is available in many more outlets than the computers, as is a bewildering and ever-increasing number of computer-orientated magazines - more than 70 at last count.
It is estimated that by the end of the year there will be one million computers in the nation's living rooms and schools. In spite of some fierce competition from rival makes at the cheap end of the market - the Oric One, the Vic-20 and no doubt soon the Electron chief among them - the Spectrum is holding its own and still leads the field in popularity. At this time last year, Sinclair Research sold some 75,000 computers by mail order alone. This year, retailers' orders for the Spectrum have already exceeded 200,000 and dealers are reporting difficulties in satisfying the demand for the machine.
The long-awaited Microdrive is expected to give the popularity of the Spectrum an additional boost, once the familiar Sinclair supply problem has been overcome. More than a month after its appearance, the Microdrive was still being sold by mail order to people who bought their Spectrums by mail order, according to the sequence in which they did so. Sinclair Research says that it is still far from reaching the end of the list and that it will be several months before the Microdrive is available over the counter.
Even when it is, there is no guarantee that the Microdrive will enjoy the success predicted for it. At £5, the cartridges are expensive compared to floppy discs, which provide slightly more memory, and so far software manufacturers have not been falling over themselves in their eagerness to produce their wares in Microdrive cartridge form.
Meanwhile, Sinclair Research is looking beyond the present healthy state of the Spectrum. A recent appearance at the SICOB computer show in Paris heralds a push into the European market. Sinclair Research admits that it has been largely overtaken by the Oric in European sales and problems of TV compatibility are another disadvantage - the Spectrum will be sold in France with an adaptor. Nevertheless, with computer sales in Britain at least a year ahead of those in other European countries, Sinclair Research is confident that there is sufficient scope for expansion overseas to make a concerted marketing effort worthwhile.
Rightly or wrongly, Sinclair Research is also planning to extend its range. The next Sinclair machine is likely to be an upmarket version, which incorporates flat-screen TV technology as well as a built-in drive, and is aimed at what has been identified as the growth area of the future - the top end of the home market and the lower end of the business market. Whether that area will provide richer pickings than the Spectrum has enjoyed so far remains to be seen.
There is little doubt at the moment that games are the fuel to power microcomputer success. The recently-launched Interface Two, with its joystick port and easy-to-load but expensive cartridges, turns the Spectrum into a streamlined games machine. At the same time, competition between software manufacturers is becoming as fierce as the micro war.
In the last few months there have been signs that the smaller software makers are suffering at the hands of bigger companies. Some have fallen from the race altogether, others are running hard to stay on the same spot, while firms like Melbourne House and the record company K-Tel are seeking to expand their activities by absorbing less viable software producers.
Entertaining - and even useful in terms of their appeal in helping to familiarise us all with the world of computers - though games might be, there is a danger that in time the seemingly endless possibilities of sound, movement, colour and graphics will be exhausted, along with the mind-stretching capabilities of adventure games. So far, the micro has meant an extension of leisure activities rather than the genuine change in our lives it was widely expected to produce.
In case the games bubble bursts, as it seems to have done in the video market, it is essential to back the spread of micros with a solid range of worthwhile educational and business software.
Sinclair Research is obviously aware of the problem and has already introduced educational cassettes to help the Spectrum on its way into the classroom; and the Interface One, with its networking capability, makes the Spectrum particularly useful as a teaching aid. Most are simple question-and-answer games but it is a start. Chalksoft, ICL, Scisoft, Hestacrest and others are also producing educational and business packages to support their games ranges.
Perhaps a more encouraging trend is the fact that respected publishers such as Heinemann and Longmans, both with long-established educational book lists, are entering the electronic publishing scene with software aimed at very young children learning at home, as well as at teachers using computers as a classroom aid.
The National Magazine Co, publisher of Good Housekeeping and Cosmopolitan, is also looking towards the pre-school market with its new imprint, Ebury Software, with learning packages which educational advisers have helped prepare for three-to-six-year-olds.
Competition, and the publishing experience of the new entrants to the software market, can only be good for the quality of educational programs, which everyone agrees have so far been lacking in distinction. It is to be hoped that a different approach will help to identify the ways in which the micro can make a genuine contribution to education and enlarge horizons other than those of outer space.
In the meantime, it remains only for us at Sinclair User to wish you all a colourful, action-packed, entertaining and exciting Christmas. Once again, we repeat our pledge to bring you throughout the year ahead all the information you need to enjoy and benefit from your Sinclair computer.