| sinclairvoyance |
AMONG the many qualities required to be a home computer enthusiast, two of which are of growing importance, are scepticism and patience. Both are needed to cope with the ever-lengthening list of products which have been announced to an eager public but which have yet to appear on the market. The Microdrive is the best, or worst, example in the Sinclair Research market but the list could be expanded to include the Binatone £50 computer and the Acorn Electron.
The reasons for kite-flying are usually to do with commercial advantage, with an element of follow-my-leader. One company will announce a forthcoming product to delay people taking decisions about buying. If it has a glowing specification it may encourage many customers to wait for the new gleaming advance in the march of technology rather than be satisfied with the more mundane products already available. Other companies bringing out similar products feel they have to follow suit to compete.
It should be added that there are accidental leaks of information about a new product - against the wishes of the firm involved. In the microcomputer market, however, it is a rare occurrence.
There is little to be criticised about making such announcements if they are accompanied by a firm date by which they should be available. People can then have most of the necessary information available and decide between waiting, say, six months or buying what is on the market already.
What is unacceptable is the growing habit of announcing the product while it is still in the early stages of development. The prototype may have been produced or the theory may have been determined but nothing done about the problems of mass production and the cost of manufacturing large quantities. All that can be said is that it will be available soon, with the exact date of its appearance retreating into the far distance and more people asking when it might go on sale. The result is that the market is confused and will remain so until the product appears or the company admits that it cannot manufacture it.
In most industries the announcement of a forthcoming product would not present great inconvenience to the consumer. People have experience of the time-scale involved and can make allowances. If BL says that a new model is being developed, potential customers realise that it could be many months, at least, before anything is seen of it.
It is a different matter in the field of microelectronics. The speed at which new products reach the market has been phenomenal and the way people can react has been equally fast. Eighteen months ago few people had heard of ZX-81, let alone the revolutions it would create in the home computing market or the mass of cottage industries and small businesses which grew on its back.
Expectations have been raised to such an extent that when a product is announced, the public expects it to be available immediately. The experience with the Spectrum shows the size of the problem, even when the product has reached the first stages of production. Orders arrived and many people were expecting to be able to buy a Spectrum at the launch at the Earls Court Computer Fair in April.
It is unnecessary to repeat the many complaints about deliveries of the Spectrum but it will be necessary to forget the problems only when the lessons have been learned and the industry ceases to play on those expectations by making promises which it cannot fulfil in the time which home computer users feel they have a right to anticipate.
Until then users will have to be sceptical about claims for future products - and be patient about waiting for them to appear.