| sinclairvoyance |
THE NEXT few months could produce a massive upheaval in the companies which have been set up on the back of the amazing success of the ZX-81.
A visit to the recent ZX Microfair, the Earls Court Computer Fair, or even a quick glance through the pages of Sinclair User indicates the size of the industry. Better keyboards, extra memory, motherboards and much more are being produced in garages and back rooms throughout the country.
All the companies have emerged since Sinclair Research introduced the ZX-80 two years ago and provide hardware to expand the capabilities of the basic Sinclair machines. Most have found a ready market and the developments continue.
Their future, however, seems suddenly to have been undermined by the introduction of the Spectrum. With that product Sinclair seems to have covered most of the areas which the spin-off companies have been able to fill in the ZX-81 market. It has colour, sound, an easier-to-use keyboard, a much shorter loading time for programs and there are plans to introduce a microdrive with data stored on microfloppies and an interface to allow other printers to be used and to develop graphics which can be used on the U.S. and French colour television systems.
With a price of £125 for the smaller 16K RAM version, the Spectrum is also likely to put a large dent in the sales of the ZX-81. Although Sinclair has said that the Spectrum is an extension to its range of computers, it will make many people think twice before buying the ZX-81.
Even with the price of the 16K RAM pack having been reduced from £49.95 to £29.95, the cost of the 16K ZX-81 is almost £100, only £25 less than the 16K Spectrum. Add the cost of a keyboard and there is very little difference.
On that analysis, there would be little point in Sinclair continuing to produce the ZX-81. That, however, ignores one of the major attractions of the ZX-81. For a reasonable price the person with no knowledge of computers can buy one and use it to learn about simple programs and determine the capabilities of the machine.
It is likely that the demand will be maintained. The question-mark is about the way in which people will want to upgrade their systems. The most obvious move would be to continue as at present and take advantage of the existing range of peripherals but those who with to make a major leap to a system with vastly superior capabilities, and who at one time would have thought of joining the queue for the BBC Micro, will now opt for the Spectrum.
If quality can be maintained and production set at the level to meet demand, more people are likely to choose this route rather than deciding to improve their ZX-81s, leaving a growing number of unused ZX-81s. The logical step would be to sell them to help pay for the Spectrum, resulting in an increase in the ZX-81 second-hand market, enabling even more people to become ZX-81 users and introducing them to the Sinclair family of products.
With the basic ZX-81 having cost less than £70, it could be that they would be more likely to upgrade by stages rather than choose the Spectrum. How much more likely will depend on the movement of prices of all the products and their availability.
The overall conclusion must be that introduction of the ZX Spectrum will slow, but not halt, the growth of the ZX-81 hardware peripherals market and promote an increase in the second-hand market.